Flood Warning – Pascagoula River Stage Merrill

Heavy rainfall across South Mississippi has resulted in flooding along area rivers. WLOX provides regular updates.

The Pearl River at Bogalusa is projected to crest well above flood stage, potentially impacting Hancock and Washington counties.

The bankfull stage is an established gauge height above which flooding occurs. It refers to the point above the lowest natural stream bank within any reach of a river or stream.

Flood Warning

Flood warnings alert residents that significant flooding is either occurring now or will soon. They should monitor local media for updates and be ready to evacuate if necessary; floods are life-threatening conditions that should never be driven through.

On Sunday, the Pascagoula River at Merrill was only one foot above flood stage and is projected to crest near 24.5 feet this Saturday evening – reaching nearly 22 feet by Thursday afternoon and then cresting around 24.5. This will cause floodwaters to inundate homes in Plum Bluff Estates as well as an old business section in Merrill; roads at Smith’s Fish Camp in southern George County, woodlands, and crop acreage will all be affected.

National Weather Service stream gage stations across the nation monitor streamflows and water surface levels continuously, and this real-time data is made available on their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) Website in real-time for real-time analysis through its interactive suite of hydrologic products and forecasts to give users access to an abundance of water-related information.

The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) employs an innovative approach to hydrologic monitoring and prediction. As an innovative model of flood forecasting and modeling, the NWS uses the AHPS to make more comprehensive assessments of hydrologic conditions more quickly and timely than before. Real-time observations combined with modeling results produce graphic products that help inform decisions made before flood events so the public can act to avoid potential hazards associated with flooding.

Flood Watch

Flood warnings alert individuals and property to flooding occurring or imminently, which poses an imminent and severe threat to life and property. The Flood Warning system relies on a gauge-level index that specifies when flood impacts begin; each stage in this index – from minor, moderate, and significant flood impacts – carries with it specific impact conditions and actions for their response. Categories for these floods do not extend across all gage locations due to the potential effects varying wildly depending on where you are situated.

The Pearl River at Bogalusa is projected to surpass flood stage by early Friday afternoon and remain above this threshold through Sunday evening, leading to widespread flooding of woodlands, crop acreage, roads near Bogue Chitto Wildlife Management Area as well as Plum Bluff Bridge in Southern George County.

At this level, the Passumpsic River is predicted to crest both north and south of Lyndonville and flood a portion of Route 5 in St. Johnsbury, as well as flood several homes nearby. Furthermore, water will likely flood Mr. Pizza’s parking lot in St. Johnsbury.

The Missisquoi River near Lowell is expected to reach 10.2′, just below the central flood stage. This will cause water to enter Burlington waterfront facilities, such as Perkins Pier and King Street ferry dock, as well as low roads, such as Loop Road and River Road between Troy and North Troy.

Flood Advisories

Floodwaters are expected to peak over the weekend in several rivers located in southwestern Missouri, prompting some communities to evacuate in advance. “It can be perilous if people wait until a river floods to leave,” stated Monticello Emergency Operations Director Scott Brown, as trapped residents could face dire consequences should they not escape in time.

The Pearl River at Columbia is projected to reach nearly bank complete stage by Saturday evening, while Pascagoula River near Merrill should rise above flood stage as soon as Monday and get near 23 feet by Friday – flooding Greene and George counties, including Plum Bluff Bridge that’s already unusable by car, Smith’s Fish Camp in southern George County will also flood.

Flooding can occur throughout the region due to rain and rising streams and ditches. If you live in an area vulnerable to flooding, monitor news media closely and be ready to evacuate if necessary; move valuables up to higher ground before leaving home.

In northwest Arkansas, the Wolf River in Hempstead County is within half an inch of reaching flood stage and is expected to recede further shortly; however, Bells Ferry Road may become impassable with deep water on its eastern approach.

Flood Information

Rivers swollen by Tropical Storm Isaac have placed coastal Mississippi under an extended flood warning. The Pascagoula River at Merrill is expected to crest Friday near 22 feet – five feet higher than flood stage – which would flood homes in Cedar Creek Estates of Jackson County as well as roads in Smith’s Fish Camp of southern George County and Plum Bluff main road, rendering these inaccessible by vehicle and closing hunting for all but waterfowl on George County portion of Pascagoula River Wildlife Management Area (George County portion).

The National Weather Service uses three flood categories to describe the severity of flooding at any one gauge location: minor, moderate, and significant flooding. Not every gage location may have all three flood stages assigned due to differences between channel/bank characteristics at particular stream reaches.

Flood categories define a height at a gauge above an established datum that indicates significant flooding is happening or expected. Rising water surfaces show flooding above this datum and will be communicated through NWS advisories/warnings at specific gauge locations. Our NWS stream gage stations continuously monitor our streams’ water levels for flooding warnings or advisories/warnings at specific gauge locations.